It's hard to predict how someone will perform at the next level in any sport. Your forecast may be right more times than not, but Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are wrong their fair share. In football, it's especially hard to prognosticate how a running back will perform. People say you can't teach speed. Maybe that's true to some degree, but speed alone does not cut it in today's NFL.
I loved guys like Reggie Bush coming out of college. Bush was taken #2 overall in the 2006 NFL Draft by the Saints, although many - including me at that time - believed he should have been the first overall selection. In college, he was one of the most dynamic backs in history. His ankle-shattering moves were unlike anything we'd seen before. He simply blew by guys with no effort. He's what me and my boys call "sick-nasty." He had a game his final year at Southern Cal versus Fresno (I recall all the details because it was '05 and I needed the #1 Trojans to lose so my Nittany Lions could move up in the rankings) where the dude had 513 all-purpose yards. Five hundred and thirteen. That game includes his famous highlight where he ran up the middle, broke it left, went up the far sideline putting it in fifth gear, stopped on a dime, had his under armour sleeve torn off, cut it across the field and scampered (that was for you, Nick) into the endzone. Look it up on YouTube when you're finished reading this. At any rate, Bush has been a relative bust through two-plus seasons. He's off to a hot start (receiving, at least) this year but it's still early and compared to Mario Williams, the #1 overall selection from Bush's draft class, he's been a disappointment.
Then came the 2007 NFL Draft. This class of running backs was headlined by Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. Both of these guys were great every-down backs in college and their styles of play, so far, have translated nicely to the pros. However, after Lynch was selected at #12 overall by the Bills, there was a major drop-off in talent at the running back position. The top backs in this draft (in terms of order of selection) that were known for their outstanding speed were two third-round guys.
Lorenzo Booker out of Florida State was taken early in the third at #71 overall. He came out of high school as the top recruit (according to Rivals100) in the entire nation. He was expected to be the next Warrick Dunn at FSU, but with more explosiveness. Booker turned out to be a bust at the Free Shoes University, much like Bush as a pro. Booker rushed for 2,878 yards and 50 touchdowns in his senior year of high school. At FSU, his career bests were 887 yards rushing and 6 total touchdowns and those numbers didn't even come in the same season. In fact, his yards per carry decreased each year in Tallahassee. This example clearly shows that his one-dimensional game didn't even cut it in college.
Twenty-two picks after Booker was selected in '07, a guy named Garrett Wolfe was taken at #93 overall by the Chicago Bears out of Northern Illinois University. Unless you are a serious college football fan, you probably won't remember the name. Let me give you the rundown. Wolfe's sophomore stats, his first season as a starter, looked like this: 11 GP, 1,773 total yds, an average of 6.5 ypc and 21 total TDs. He followed up that stellar campaign with a junior year in which he was named an All-American despite missing three games with a sore knee. That season he produced 1,802 total yds, scored 17 total TDs and averaged 6.5 ypc (again) in only nine games. Many doubted that the 5'7 Wolfe could do any better. So he did. He capped off his college career with a senior season that included a nation-leading 1,928 yards on the ground, a single-season career best of 247 yards through the air, 19 total TDs and he again averaged over six yards per carry. Think he didn't do it against top talent? Wrong. His best performances happened to come against Big Ten opponents throughout his career, including a game to open his senior season where he rushed for 171 yards while pulling in another 114 through the air (yes, 285 total) against #1 Ohio State at Columbus.
Another issue for the players I've listed, as is the case with many running backs because of all the hits they take, is their durability. Each of these guys were among the top backs coming out of college in their respective drafts, each was known for their speed, and each have histories of run-ins with the doctor. Who wants to waste a high draft pick (and don't say that third-round picks aren't valuable) on a third down back that gets banged up? LeRon McClain and Ahmad Bradshaw were taken in the 4th and 7th rounds, respectively, in 2007. In '06, Joseph Addai was taken late in the first round (#30 overall, twenty-nine spots after Bush) and Maurice Jones-Drew (who should have won ROY honors in 2006) went 60th overall.
Sorry about all the numbers. But I'm a stat kind of guy and those numbers were impressive. Anyway, are you starting to feel me here? I'm naming one-dimensional scat backs known for breakaway speed and little else. Maybe it's a little early for me to say all three of these guys are busts. But what they've shown us so far doesn't say much. Don't think Reggie Bush, Lorenzo Booker, Garrett Wolfe and their speedy counterparts have gotten enough opportunities for me to write them off? Okay. But if they were the real deal, wouldn't they get more chances to prove it? National Football League GMs and coaches need not be swayed by jaw-dropping runs they see on fuzzy YouTube videos. I'm no coaching guru nor do I scout professionally. But as far as I can see, and it's pretty apparent, speed may burn defenses but it can just as easily burn a team who reaches too high for it on draft day.
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