The Road Not Taken

The last time I wrote about the Philadelphia Eagles they had just been throttled by the Ravens and were preparing to host the Cardinals on Thanksgiving Day. At the time, Philadelphia fans were livid. The finger-pointing had reached an all-time high and an air of discontent was hovering above the Delaware Valley.

In case you passed out, bumped your head and ended up in a coma after reading my last Eagles post, I'll fill you in: The Eagles went on to dominate the Cards on Thanksgiving, led by Donovan McNabb and a heavy dose of pressure from the defense. This made the holiday a happy one, but a game in the Meadowlands the following week was looming - and a loss looked to be devastating.

Somehow, the Eagles managed to shut down the Giants at their place. This win sparked some optimism amongst the fans - cautious optimism, that is. Three games remained: Cleveland, at Washington, and Dallas. I predicted a win, a win, a loss, and a side-door entrance into the playoffs. I was close.

The Eagles fed off the energy of their back-to-back wins and dominated the Browns. That game was followed by a trip to Washington. Some called this a "trap" game. It was, in fact, just that. The Eagles hot offense suddenly hit a wall against the 'Skins. The passing game was good, but the running game never got going and that resulted in many failed third and longs. An Eagles win would have clinched a playoff berth. Instead, it set up a huge matchup versus the Cowboys in Week 17.

In the preseason, many predicted that this game would have a lot riding on it. But instead of deciding the division or home field advantage, this game eliminated one team from the playoff hunt. For Dallas, it was win and you're in. For Philly, it wasn't as easy: the Eagles needed to win, Oakland had to upset Tampa, and either Chicago or Minnesota had to lose. As unlikely as that scenario seemed, the Eagles dominated the Cowboys like never before, Oakland pulled the improbable upset, Chicago lost, and the Birds clinched the final playoff spot.

It was a great way to end the regular season and, much like the Giants last season, the Eagles were getting hot at the right time. On the surface, this looked like the perfect scenario. On the other hand, this type of situation can also become the perfect storm - especially in Philadelphia.

The Eagles were matched up with the Minnesota Vikings in the opening round. The storylines were abundant: two quarterbacks who were benched but managed to turn things around, Brad Childress versus his former team, and the NFC's best running back against the conference's best defense. Minus a forty-yard TD run, the Eagles were able to contain Adrian Peterson and Asante Samuel did what he does best - return interceptions for touchdowns. Ultimately, his third quarter TD was the game-winning score. Next up: the New York Giants. In the Meadowlands. Again.

Prior to the Vikings game, I was asked many times about what I thought was going to happen in that contest. I told everyone I spoke to, without reservation, that the Eagles had it locked up. I was not so confident the following week. I shouldn't say that. It wasn't that I lacked confidence - I just knew what the Eagles were going up against. The defending Super Bowl Champions were home and their bruising tailback, Brandon Jacobs, was healthy this time around. I told folks that if I had to bet my life on it, I would pick the Giants. I had a great feeling about the Eagles all season, but I was truly worried about this game.

Two key statistics that are often overlooked by the average fan are third down and red zone efficiency. The Eagles won big this season when they converted on third down and scored in the red zone. When they stunk it up, it was because they were not efficient in these areas. Most of the time, this is the case for all teams.

However, the "experts" each tabbed something else as the key to this colossal matchup. I listened to 950 ESPN radio all week at work. I tuned in for Jody Mac and Harry Mayes, Tirico and Van Pelt, and Mike Missaneli from Monday through Friday and heard the same things over and over: Brandon Jacobs is the key, Donovan McNabb is the key, the kickers are the key. There was not one mention of third downs or red zones.

In the end, this game came down to the two areas I just mentioned. The Eagles converted fifty percent of their third downs, while the Giants converted only twenty-three percent and failed to score a red zone touchdown. In fact, the Giants didn't score a touchdown all day. The NFC's best team was held to three field goals and a controversial safety. I guess it's a good thing that I didn't bet my life on this game, huh?

Later that night the Cardinals went into Charlotte and dominated the Panthers. The Eagles win may have been a shock to most, but it was greatly overshadowed by Arizona's win over Carolina. Following the regular season, some people felt that the Panthers were the NFC's best. Instead, they'll be sitting at home watching the Eagles and Cardinals play in the NFC Championship Game tomorrow. Who could have predicted such a thing?

So, what will happen in this unlikely matchup? The numbers suggest that this game will be another blowout for the Eagles. They not only trumped the Cards on Thanksgiving, but they have a far greater defense and -- at this point -- Brian Westbrook is much better than Edge or Tim Hightower. The Eagles have struggled to run the ball lately, but the Cardinals are not nearly as good against the run as the Eagles' previous two opponents. And while I know that the Cardinals win over Carolina looked impressive from a distance, Jake Delhomme had six turnovers on his own. Do really think Donovan will turn the ball over that many times against Arizona's shotty defense?

However, box scores don't always tell the full story. Arizona may have too much momentum for the Eagles to handle, the Birds may struggle to get pressure on Kurt Warner this time, and the Cards are playing at home. My point is, don't be surprised by any outcome. Remember what you're watching. These are two teams that won only nine games each in the regular season. If two nine-win teams can reach a conference championship, anything can happen.

The Eagles' path to the NFC Championship has taken many unexpected turns: What if the Giants lost to the Panthers in Week 16 and the playoff seeds were re-ordered? What if Tampa beat Oakland in Week 17 and the Eagles were left out of the postseason? There were so many close calls and unforeseen events that have led the Eagles to this point. Hell, what if the Cowboys lived up to expectations this season? I've heard many comparisons to last year's Giants team. Sure, I can see that. But these Eagles remind me of another championship team - the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. Like the Phils season, everything is falling into place.

Imagine if the Eagles had won twelve games and the division championship. They could have ended up like the Giants and Panthers: a complacent, twelve-win team that is one and done in the playoffs. That would have crushed the city. Instead, the Eagles have persevered all season long. After Andy Reid benched his quarterback he told us that sometimes you need to take a step back in order to go a mile forward. Back then, the haters called this one of the worst coaching moves ever. Hate him or love him, he looks prophetic today. The Eagles have surely taken the road less traveled this season. And so far, it's made all the difference.