In fact, I'm so headstrong that I've selected a running back in each of the first two rounds in four of five seasons and I've never selected a quarterback earlier than the fourth round. Of course, this methodical strategy of mine has only netted one league championship.
However, the same strategy has worked wonders for other owners: In the five-year history of the IFFL (that's my league), our league champion has selected running backs in each of the first two rounds four times (sound familiar?) and, in most cases, has waited for a quarterback.
First, quarterbacks are scoring more in fantasy football than ever before. Rather than using the run to set up the pass, many NFL teams are doing just the opposite. And because of that, fantasy quarterbacks are more valuable today. The number of 300-point quarterbacks from 2004 to 2008 has gone from one, to two, to five, to six.
Thanks to this aerial revolution, so to speak, pass catchers are also cashing in. I mean, who considered drafting a team's third receiver ten years ago? Today, on the other hand, teams spread the ball around so much that it's not uncommon to draft a team's third wideout.
I made sure to use the term "pass catcher" a moment ago because I can't forget about tight ends. A decade ago Shannon Sharpe and Tony Gonzalez were the only two ends that could dream of 75 catches, 750 yards or 7 touchdowns. This season there are about ten guys who could reach one or more of those plateaus.
Speaking of running backs: As many points as the top backs score, how much of a sure thing are they? Looking back at my 2008 pre-draft rankings, only four of my top ten backs finished there at season's end, while not one exceeded expectations.
Now maybe '08 was an anomaly, but of the four highest-scoring fantasy running backs last year (DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Matt Forte and Thomas Jones), fourteen was as high as I had any of them ranked heading into draft night.
Plus, the overwhelming majority of NFL teams split carries to keep their backs fresh - and in turn, healthy. Now this certainly creates depth at the position, but it takes away from first-string backs.
Judging by the points I've made above, you may think I've abandoned my running back-first philosophy. Not exactly. I've just discovered that the NFL is changing. And when the NFL changes, sometimes fantasy football changes.
One thing hasn't changed, though: the value of a 250 or 300-pt running back. People wonder why backs dominate the first round. Here's my conclusion...
Depending on the offense, there are more than sixty-four starting wide receivers in the NFL, but only about twenty-five (taking flex players into account) in fantasy. Meanwhile, NFL teams only start one running back (and at least half split carries), while in fantasy there are about twenty-five. In other words, it's almost necessary to grab the top running backs while they're hot.
I just want all fantasy owners out there to know that it's okay to grab a quarterback or receiver in the first round. You don't have to feel pressured into taking a chance on a 200-point back in the middle or end of the first round of your draft when there are similarly-scoring options at receiver. And why feel guilty "reaching" for a quarterback? If you think someone's going to have a 2007 Tom Brady-like season, take him in the first round.
But as I stated earlier, your first round selection -- as well as all subsequent draft picks -- are going to be heavily influenced by your draft position and personal preference.
So has there been a changing of the guard? Should you refrain from taking a running back with your top pick this year because some wannabe fantasy guru has told you that quarterbacks and receivers are more valuable today than ever? That's for you to decide...
Rookies, and Sleepers, and Busts! Oh, my!
One of the great storylines of '08, however, was the surprising influx of effective rookies - most of which were running backs. Five of the twenty-four top backs last season were rookies, and even more made a fantasy impact.
Are we going to see a repeat of that in '09? It's doubtful. But if any rookie produces enough to garner a starting spot on your squad this season, he's probably one the five (in order of fantasy relevance) listed below.
1. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals -- In 2007 the Ohio State Buckeyes strolled into State College, Pennsylvania for a night game versus the Penn State Nittany Lions. For those of you fortunate enough to have witnessed such an event, you're aware of the ruckus that this causes in Centre County. But for the Wells-led Buckeyes, neither the noise nor the defense was a problem.
His health slowed him down a bit last year and, to the delight of the Arizona Cardinals, the former Buckeye dropped to the end of the first round in April's draft. In other words, Wells not only has ridiculous skills, but he's also in an ideal situation playing for a winning team.
I would be surprised if Chris Wells isn't the top offensive rookie in 2009. Edge is gone, Tim Hightower hasn't proven he can be the man, the offensive line is young and improving and, for what it's worth, the Cards have the NFL's best passing attack to relieve some pressure.
I'm still not completely sold on the former Connecticut product, but he enters his rookie year in as good, if not better, a situation as Chris Wells. For starters, the Colts' offense has consistently been one of the few best units in the league over the last decade. That always helps. And Brown will surely have many opportunities to prove himself.
Also in Brown's favor is the uncertainty surrounding Joseph Addai. The former top-tier back struggled big-time last year with injuries to himself and teammates. Between Addai's long list of ailments and his perceived lack of aggression, the Colts needed an insurance policy.
Can Brown be an elite running back in the NFL? I'm not sure. But he's definitely going to have many chances to prove me wrong. As far as fantasy productivity, Donald Brown will make an impact in '09.
3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos -- My man-crush on Knowshon Moreno is as heavy as the one I have for Beanie Wells. This dude dominated the SEC McFadden-stlye the last few years, he's jack-nasty, and Jersey Fresh. What's not to like?
Well, besides the fact that the Broncos aren't the Broncos of old (aka Running Back Heaven) and because he has about thirty guys competing for the starting spot, I don't expect Moreno to blow up like Bronco rookie backs of the past.
He certainly has the potential to make an impact, though. I love Knowshon Moreno, but I'm not a huge fan of him as a fantasy back this year - that's all. I expect the aforementioned Wells and Brown to get many more opportunities, which bumps Moreno down a tad on this list. But if I was to start a team with any rookie back this year, Moreno may be my guy.
4. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings -- Harvin makes this list by default. Not to take anything away from him, but like last year's rookie wideouts, the 2009 receiver class is shallow.
I've never been a big Michael Crabtree fan, Jeremy Maclin and Hakeem Nicks have a lot of guys to compete with in Philly and New York, respectively, and I'm sorry but no Raider -- and that includes the speedy Darrius Heyward-Bey -- is ever a factor in fantasy football.
Percy Harvin is the definition of an all-purpose back. He may have a bit of a fumbling problem, but he can be used in so many ways (see: Florida Gators circa '06-'08). Looking at his college numbers, you may assume that Harvin was a running back. But he's just that versatile.
Considering who the Vikings at receiver, it's hard to not to envision Percy Harvin making an impact in 2009. Even if he's only the team's third receiver, he's going to get his touches. I don't suggest using a high draft pick on Harvin - but if you can grab him in the final rounds of your draft, you may be rewarded handsomely.
5. Brian Robiskie, WR, Browns -- This may be a reach, but Brian Robiskie was one of the most underrated wide receivers in college football over the last few years.
And like all the guys on this list, he's going to play right away. He's tall, has great hands, runs impeccable routes, and will have the chance to start from day one. He may not be the fastest wideout in the world, but Robiskie is a solid possession receiver.
I'm not saying he's going to be a fantasy stud this year, but I fully expect Brian Robiskie to rack up more receiving yards than any of his rookie counterparts.
Next I bring you my likely sleepers for 2009. The following guys are all due for big seasons because either a) they signed with a new team, putting them in a better position to score some fantasy points or b) they no longer have injuries to themselves or others holding them back. Without further ado...
1. Derrick Ward, RB, Buccaneers -- Although injuries slowed him down some in '07, Derrick Ward has been one of the league's best reserve running backs for two years running. And now he has the chance to prove he can be the main man.
He's strong, runs low to the ground, and has great hands. In his last two seasons as a Giant, Ward averaged 5.3 yards per carry. And if you pro-rate his receptions over that span, he would have averaged 45 grabs per season among a crowded Giants backfield.
He may have competition in Tampa with Earnest Graham still around, but if anyone can be this year's Michael Turner, it's Derrick Ward.
2. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Seahawks -- T.J. Housh suffered last year due to the absence of Carson Palmer. This year Housh not only has a healthy quarterback (or so we think) in Matt Hasselbeck, but he's the number one target for his new team. And by the way, the NFC West is still one of the worst divisions in football.
Despite poor quarterback play all year in Cincy, only four NFL receivers caught more balls than Housh in '08. All signs point to a major comeback for the humble wideout. And the best part about drafting Housh: You can get him later than any 90+ catch receiver.
3. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers -- Like LT, Ryan Grant dealt with an injury for most of last season. And although he played through the pain, his fantasy owners were still feeling it.
Somehow Grant managed to gain 1,300+ yards and score 5 total touchdowns anyway. Free from injury in 2009, he may be back to where he was in the second half of the '07 season.
Grant has a very good passing attack to lean on and an average division (as far as run defense goes) to play against. And don't think for a second that Brandon Jackson will cut into his carries. Grant will likely end up a top-15 back. And like the others on this list, you don't have to reach to get him.
4. Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals -- You may surprised that Carson Palmer is on this list. He's one of the few best quarterbacks in the league when healthy. Does that qualify as a sleeper? Let's say it does. Well, he just lost T.J., his go-to receiver. Sorry, Chad. In that case, is he worthy?
Simply put, yes and yes. Many people -- owners and experts alike -- are projecting Palmer as a fantasy backup. To me, that's wild. He may very well be a top-5 quarterback in 2009. Of course much of that depends on his relationship with Chad Johnson.
Yes, I know Housh is gone - but Chris Henry (assuming he can stay out of trouble) is no slouch. Palmer does have to deal with the Steelers and Ravens twice each season, but studs are studs. Carson Palmer may be just that is '09.
5. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots -- After exploding onto the scene in '07, Welker took an off-year of sorts in '08. But if you lost your three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback and replaced him with a first-year starter, wouldn't you experience a drop-off in production?
Welker has Randy Moss lining up on the other side, a healthy Tom Brady, and possibly the quickest feet in the NFL. He'll get back to his old form. Don't be surprised if Wes Welker finishes among the top ten wide receivers in 2009.
And finally, I give you my likely busts. You may not agree with all of these, but I'll at least give you good reason to consider them. Whether I see an injury on the horizon or I think their '08 performance was a fluke, the names below could be headed toward a disappointing 2009...
1. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons -- Michael Turner had fresh legs entering the 2008 season. That's not exactly the case today. After carrying the ball 376 times last year, an injury (or outright disappointment) is likely in '09.
In case you haven't heard of The Curse of 370, let me explain: Over the last ten years a number of NFL running backs have carried the ball 370+ times, only to see their productivity tail off significantly the following year.
Of all the times that a back has exceeded the 370 mark, only twice has that player returned to top-10 form the following season. By the way, those two players were Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson, two of few best fantasy football players ever.
I love Michael Tuner as a player. I've enjoyed watching him run people over since his days at Northern Illinois. But the numbers rarely lie. I would bet on Turner being the biggest failure of the upcoming season.
2. Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals -- The Arizona Cardinals and Kurt Warner may have been the story of the year across the NFL in 2008. But his downfall in 2009 may also steal headlines.
For starters, Warner has never played two full seasons back-to-back in his career. The chances of him pulling it off for the first time ever this year, at the age of 38, aren't very good.
Like Turner, if Warner can remain healthy, I don't see why he can't repeat (or at least come close to) his performance from last year. I just wouldn't bet on an injury-free 2009 for Kurt Warner.
3. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets -- I considered leaving Jones off this list because I can see both sides of the coin. However, I decided that the cons outweighed the pros. I have many reasons for Thomas Jones making the 2009 Bust List. Here are a few...
- He is an angry man. He's never content with anything: his workload, his contract, his girlfriend. I can't see the guy staying happy long enough to repeat what he did last year.
- The Jets love Leon Washington and Shonn Grenne. I wouldn't be surprised if both of these players outplay Jones in '09.
- But let's say, for argument's sake, that that doesn't happen. At the age of 31, can Thomas Jones really combine for 15 total touchdowns again?
4. Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos -- Another angry man is wide receiver Brandon Marshall. He's constantly in trouble, he stays complaining about his contract, and he never stops talking trash.
I'm not going to lie, I love him. I've had him in each of the last two seasons and he's been one of my only steady performers both years.
But between his new quarterback situation, his constant contract issues, and his offseason hip surgery, I wouldn't be surprised to see B-Marsh fall off the map in 2009.
5. Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers -- Antonio Bryant may be one of the more obvious selections for this list. But hey, after making some gutsy picks earlier (i.e. Michael Turner) I think I'm entitled to a gimmie.
Bryant had a very surprising 2008 season. But now he has a new coach, coordinator, running back, quarterback, and tight end. Sell high - because Bryant's value is plummeting.
