Luck of the Draw

Which is more important in fantasy sports: skill or luck?

Well, it depends who you ask.

I've noticed that people who typically succeed in fantasy sports tend to think it's a matter of skill -- a blend of preparation, knowledge, and experience.

Then there are the people who typically struggle. They constantly complain about their "bad luck," claiming that despite their best efforts, they continually lose.

Of course, there are also winners who swear they "got lucky," and losers who have come to realize that they're forever doomed.

But before explaining my theory, let me use an analogy -- and then an example -- that may make my theory concerning this debate of skill versus luck easier to understand...

Exhibit A: Fantasy sports are like the stock market.

The idea is to carefully select which player (company) you'd like to invest in, based on how he's performed in the past and how he's projected to perform in the future.

From there, your job is to closely monitor your player (stock), making a decision on whether he (or it, the stock) is worth holding.

If you think a player (stock) is living up to or exceeding his potential, you ride him out. If not, you have the option to cut (or sell) him.




Exhibit B: Phil Ivey, the man widely regarded as the world's greatest poker player.

Though Ivey advanced to the final table of the 2009 World Series of Poker, he barely finished in the Top 10 because of a long run of "bad" hands down the stretch.

Despite being the most experienced, successful player at the final table, Ivey couldn't get the job done, proving that sometimes it doesn't matter how prepared you may be or how much skill you may possess.

Which leads me to my opinion on this endless debate...

In fantasy sports you can set yourself up for success by analyzing statistics, studying trends, and being prepared for every possible scenario on draft day and beyond.

This preparation is invaluable -- because you can't gauge its value.

The fact is, good or bad fortune is uncontrollable.

Sure, preparation could work wonders for your fantasy squad. But it could also go to waste if your top pick is a bust, your star running back gets injured, or your team allows a ton of points, something for which you have no control over.

On the other hand, an unprepared fantasy owner can get lucky with a few questionable draft picks, never have to deal with an injury, or rarely allow a ton of points. And trust me, I've seen that before.

So while skill -- preparation, knowledge, and experience -- can improve one's chances, good or bad fortune will always override it.

Born to Run

From 1951 to 1978, Wayne Woodrow "Woody" Hayes led the Ohio State University football program to 205 wins, 13 Big Ten championships, and 3 national titles. He did this by running the football, and running it well.

Hayes' conservative, run-heavy offense inspired sportswriters to coin the phrase "three yards and a cloud of dust." And up until the mid-to-late 90's, this motto accurately characterized the offensive theory of the entire Big Ten.

But today Big Ten offenses are far more balanced. Most programs use three-, four-, and five-receiver sets, and very few utilize the fullback position, the focal point of most Hayes-led offenses.

This season, four of eleven Big Ten offenses can be classified as run-first units. But of those four, three do it from some variation of the lauded "spread," signifying a drastic change in offensive philosophy from the days of double tights and I-formations.

Though Hayes probably wouldn't recognize today's Big Ten, he would have appreciated how this year's de facto Big Ten Championship Game played out. And not just because Ohio State won.




The Buckeyes' thrilling victory was highlighted by their physicality, rushing for 229 yards (4.5 ypc) and 3 touchdowns on offense, while holding the Hawkeyes to just 67 yards (2.8 ypc) of their own.

Ohio State's win clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title for the fifth consecutive season, in addition to the conference's coveted Rose Bowl berth.

This will be Ohio State's first appearance in Pasdena since the 1996 season, and their fifth straight title is the now tied for the second-longest streak in conference history.

Looking at statistics alone, the Buckeyes appeared to have dominated Iowa. They had more first downs, converted on a higher percentage of third downs, and didn't commit one turnover.

If it wasn't for Iowa's effective passing attack, it's unlikely that the game would have gone to overtime, and Ohio State probably would have won by more than three points.

But although the pass may have kept Iowa in the game, they paid dearly for their reliance on the pass in the end.

Stepping in for injured starter Ricky Stanzi, redshirt freshman James Vandenberg was stellar in his first career start -- minus three untimely interceptions, one of which came on Iowa's only possession of overtime.

Woody Hayes never liked to pass the football, claiming that it was too risky to put the ball in the air.

He once said, referring to his team's performance in a season-opening game, "That was as bad an opener as we have ever played. When you get into the passing game, you can expect that sort of thing to happen."

On Saturday, with the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl berth on the line, that sort of thing happened to Iowa.

Old Faithful

I didn't publish a single post in October. But I was writing. I promise.

It's just, every time I was thisclose to completing whatever it was I was working on, something unanticipated would compromise the direction of my story.

Jrue Holiday, the "future" of the Philadelphia 76ers backcourt, was the subject of one such story -- until he struggled to get on the floor this preseason. Today, eight games into the Sixers regular season, Holiday is last on the team in minutes played.

A few weeks ago I started another about the Phillies big-name pitching acquisitions. And I was really looking forward to it. But as you could imagine, the last few nights of the World Series took the wind out of my sails.

The Denver Broncos hot start was the focus of yet another fine piece of work by yours truly. I had planned on writing about how Josh McDaniels' resolve has led the Broncos to an undefeated start. Then they lost two straight.

So instead I'm writing about a guy who's never changed, about a guy who's been as reliable for a story over the last eighteen years as he's been for a start.




His name is Brett Favre. And on the first day of November, Ol' Brett reminded us why he's one of the most revered figures in professional sports.

Playing against the team that he called his own for nearly two decades, in the stadium in which he set countless NFL records, Brett led the Minnesota Vikings to a huge road win over the rival Packers.

In a game filled with both storylines and emotion, Number Four stole the show by passing for four touchdowns and leading the Vikings to a 12-point win in his first and only career game on the opposing sideline of Lambeau.

It was an emphatic performance from Favre: 17 of 28 for 244 yards, 4 touchdowns (to four different players), and 0 interceptions.

His last two touchdowns, each coming in the fourth quarter, extended the Vikings' lead from single-digits to double-digits, the latter being the straw that broke the camel's back.

With that win the first-place Vikes moved 2.5 games ahead of the second-place Pack in the NFC North. And after a bye in Week Nine, coupled with a Packer upset in Tampa, the Vikings now find themselves three games ahead in the Black and Blue.

But years from now, statistics won't be the only thing I'll remember about this game.




I'll remember Brett's child-like enthusiasm when his team scored -- jumping up and down, arms raised, more excited than anyone in the stadium.

I'll remember the compassion he showed when one of his former receivers, Greg Jennings, appeared to be injured near the Viking sideline -- how he took a knee next to Jennings, made sure he was okay, and as Jennings walked away, said something to him that triggered a smile.

I'll remember his clutch play when the game was tight -- highlighted by those two fourth quarter touchdowns to Jeff Dugan and Bernard Berrian.

These are the moments that move people. These are the moments that have made Brett Favre who he is, that have transformed him from small-town Mississippi boy to NFL icon.

Favre plays and speaks from the heart. And that's what Americans like to see. They want an athlete they can relate to, an athlete that can relate to them.

With Brett Favre, you know what you're going to get. I wouldn't dare call him predictable -- but he is reliable. And I mean that in more ways than one.