Three weeks ago I made my picks for each series of the MLB playoffs. As expected, the teams that were best in the regular season did not make it to the October Classic. I was dead wrong about the Angels and the Cubs in each division series. However, I did get my pennant winners right. The scrappy Phils and the star-studded youth of the Rays will face off tonight in World Series Game 1.
Before making my picks a few weeks back, I talked about recent WS history by explaining that only twice in the last ten seasons has the team with the best record won it all. And although I picked the Rays to win 4-2 over the Phils, I'm starting to think that it's going to go seven games either way. The more I think about everything and break down the matchups, pitching staffs, bullpens, the DH factor, and the intangibles, I feel like both teams have a really good shot.
Tonight, I anticipate Cole Hamels being lights out in Tampa. If he stays as hot as he's been, I think it will be a huge step in the right direction by getting a Game 1 win at their place. These days, it's a 2-3-2 format which, in my opinion, puts a lot of stress on the team with home field advantage to get out to an early lead. The problem for Tampa is that the best pitcher on either staff resides in Philly and he goes tonight against their potent lineup. If the Phils steal this first game, it will be okay to split in Tampa because they'll head home for three straight games. I really don't see Tampa winning a game in chilly Philly.
A win in Game 1 for the Rays is a must. I truly feel like whoever wins the first game will win the series. Why? Because like I said, if the Phils win one of the first two, they get three in a row at home. On the other hand, if the Rays can win tonight, they likely won't have to face Cole again until Game 5 in Philly. And with how deep the Rays staff is, Cole may not see a Game 5 is he loses this evening. Plus, history agrees with me as each of the last five World Series Champs have won Game 1.
Considering all that, I'm picking the Phils to win Game 1 and the series. The Rays have a better staff overall, but the best on either side plays for the Phillies. The Phils get the nod in the 'pen, by far. Brad Lidge is truly lights out and this has been one of the best bullpens all season. Plus, who's this David Price guy? I guarantee he disappears this series. He seems like a really nice guy and he looks to have good stuff. But the "experts" claim this kid is the x-factor? Come on, already. He's thrown like 10 pitches all year. The fact that the Rays bullpen is shaky without Troy Percival and that the Phillies have won so many games in the last few innings, I see more of the same in this series. Call me a homer, if you will. But if I'm right again, you're gonna hear about it.
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