Monday, December 8, 2008

Don't Bet On It

My family turned me on to sports when I was young. Before I turned ten I was watching SportsCenter religiously and getting quizzed by my grandfather on college football nicknames. By the time I was twelve I was fortunate enough to be attending Penn State football games on a pretty regular basis. I used to tell people in the stands, "Pick a number, I'll give you the player's name." Before long I was known as "the statistician" and still hold the title today in section SHU of Beaver Stadium. The amount of useless information I've obtained is immeasurable. Maybe that's why I've always struggled in school. I squarely place the blame on my dad, uncle and grandfather.

My dad played this football pool at his work when I was younger. It was the kind where you pick each game heads-up and give your MNF score as the tiebreaker. Not that he needed my help, but he always asked me what I thought. I'm not sure if he really respected my opinion at such a young age or just wanted to get me involved. Either way, I appreciated it. Dad used to tell me that if I was ever going to bet on football that this was as far as I should go with it. Although he was always good at picking winners, even he was wrong his fair share. He used to tell me how unpredictable pro football is and that it's too dangerous to bet more than the five dollars it cost him to pick winners each weekend.

I've come to learn that he was right and the last couple seasons of pro football have supported that. Following the 2007 regular season, you, me and Papa Rounds all figured the undefeated Patriots were Super Bowl Champs-to-be. We were wrong. The New York Giants proved to be the one team that could stop Tom Brady and the their record-setting offense. I'm no gamblin' man. But if I was, I would have put my money on New England - and lost.


This season of pro football has been just as wild. If I told you in August that the Titans would have the best record in the league or that the Falcons and Dolphins were going to be in the hunt for the playoffs you would have thought I was crazy. Jacksonville and San Diego are a combined 9-17 today. Did you see that coming? I didn't. I figured this was the year that the Jags would take over the AFC South. And I assumed the Chargers would continue to dominate a weak AFC West. I guess that's why I don't work for ESPN yet. Another popular pick in August was the Cowboys as Super Bowl Champs. Count me in on that one, too. Even the Eagles were considered by some the sexy, dark horse pick to win it all. Right now it looks as though their Week 17 showdown will eliminate one of the two and sneak the other through the postseason's back door as the final wild card spot.

When pro football takes unexpected turns, fantasy football does the same. My fantasy league is always competitive and this season was no different. It may have been the most evenly matched season in our five-year history. Each season of the IFFL has produced a different champion - including this year. In fact, not one of our past champions had a winning record this season. For every unexpected NFL team, there was an unexpected fantasy stud that exploded onto the scene. Kurt Warner, who wasn't the starter for Arizona this summer, finished our regular season as the league's No. 2 quarterback. The top three running backs ended up being DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Thomas Jones. In the preseason I had them ranked 24th, 17th and 15th, respectively. And there's why CBS Sportsline doesn't employ me either.


A few years ago I worked at this bar down the road. One of the bartenders there ran a weekly football pool like the one my dad used to play: five bucks, winners only, no points, MNF tiebreaker. In the second week of the season I won and the purse was $150. Like I told you before, I'm no gambler - so I played it smart and went out on top. Inexpensive pools and fantasy football are fun. They're enjoyable, they force you to pay more attention than you normally would and you can win a little cash. Laying big odds, however, can get you in some trouble. And while the NFL's random results may produce some exciting drama, they scare guys like me away.

Today I work at a restaurant in the far northeast of Philly one day a week. While it sucks to wait tables on Sundays, game day, I do get to check on the NFL action here and there. Plus, I like watching the guys that have money on the games bitching and moaning in the bar. They're pretty funny. They'll tell me stories about how much money they have on this game and that game. I'm surprised they haven't had heart attacks yet. I always tell them, "I couldn't imagine having hundreds of dollars riding on a game with such uncertainty." But I guess that's the allure of it. Someday the huge wagers will catch up to one of these characters. The unforeseeable results of the NFL will ruin them and I'll be saying, "Told you so." It's a good thing my dad warned me years ago.


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