Luck of the Draw

Which is more important in fantasy sports: skill or luck?

Well, it depends who you ask.

I've noticed that people who typically succeed in fantasy sports tend to think it's a matter of skill -- a blend of preparation, knowledge, and experience.

Then there are the people who typically struggle. They constantly complain about their "bad luck," claiming that despite their best efforts, they continually lose.

Of course, there are also winners who swear they "got lucky," and losers who have come to realize that they're forever doomed.

But before explaining my theory, let me use an analogy -- and then an example -- that may make my theory concerning this debate of skill versus luck easier to understand...

Exhibit A: Fantasy sports are like the stock market.

The idea is to carefully select which player (company) you'd like to invest in, based on how he's performed in the past and how he's projected to perform in the future.

From there, your job is to closely monitor your player (stock), making a decision on whether he (or it, the stock) is worth holding.

If you think a player (stock) is living up to or exceeding his potential, you ride him out. If not, you have the option to cut (or sell) him.




Exhibit B: Phil Ivey, the man widely regarded as the world's greatest poker player.

Though Ivey advanced to the final table of the 2009 World Series of Poker, he barely finished in the Top 10 because of a long run of "bad" hands down the stretch.

Despite being the most experienced, successful player at the final table, Ivey couldn't get the job done, proving that sometimes it doesn't matter how prepared you may be or how much skill you may possess.

Which leads me to my opinion on this endless debate...

In fantasy sports you can set yourself up for success by analyzing statistics, studying trends, and being prepared for every possible scenario on draft day and beyond.

This preparation is invaluable -- because you can't gauge its value.

The fact is, good or bad fortune is uncontrollable.

Sure, preparation could work wonders for your fantasy squad. But it could also go to waste if your top pick is a bust, your star running back gets injured, or your team allows a ton of points, something for which you have no control over.

On the other hand, an unprepared fantasy owner can get lucky with a few questionable draft picks, never have to deal with an injury, or rarely allow a ton of points. And trust me, I've seen that before.

So while skill -- preparation, knowledge, and experience -- can improve one's chances, good or bad fortune will always override it.