The Wealth of Nations

Joe Paterno -- Penn State's iconic head football coach -- has campaigned for a Division I-A football playoff for years.

And when you consider his past, it's easy empathize with: the man has coached five undefeated teams over his forty-four-year career at State College. But of all those perfect seasons, Penn State was voted the National Champion only once.

Unfortunately for Coach Paterno, the push for postseason liberation was almost nonexistent in the 60s and 70s. And as a result, many undefeated, championship-worthy teams at Penn State (and elsewhere) have suffered.

But due to support from tenured figures like JoePa, and as a result of the many deficiencies of the Bowl Championship Series, the FBS postseason has been bitterly contested in recent years.

Whether it be the President of the United States on 60 Minutes, pollsters over the last 15-plus years, or some hot-shot writer-in-training here, or again here, it's hard to find someone that doesn't dream of a playoff at college football's highest level.

However, Paterno's advocacy for change doesn't end with the playoff debate. Ironic as it may be, it's the 83-year-old legend -- a man that has been chastised repeatedly for being cranky, out-of-touch, even archaic -- that's been pushing for two decades to see the Big Ten evolve.

In the twenty years since Penn State accepted an invitation to the Big Ten Conference, Paterno has continually encouraged member university presidents and athletic directors, as well as conference commissioner Jim Delany, to explore the idea of Big Ten expansion.

Those endorsements continue today.

During the annual spring football teleconferences on April 13th, Coach Paterno spoke of what he envisions:

"I think expansion is coming... I think the trend is there's going to be bigger conferences... There's going to be 12-, 14-team conferences, and maybe even 16-team conferences. Do I know what I'm talking about? Who knows... But it would appear to me with the television situation what it is, and the great impact it has on exposure, obviously, and what that exposure does as far as recruiting, I think we're naive if [we] think that we can sit back and watch everybody else move ahead, because they're going to move ahead... We better start thinking about where we're going."

As it's been suggested for years, expanding by one, to a 12-member league, would enable the Big Ten to set up two 6-team divisions, therefore allowing it to hold a conference championship game at season's end.

And for what's it worth, an emphasis on divisional play, based on some geographical border, would alter scheduling for all sports -- especially football and men's basketball, the top two earners (and TV-friendly sports) in college athletics.

The consensus among Big Ten football coaches during the teleconferences: expansion makes sense. In fact, it turned out to be the topic of conversation. And JoePa wasn't the only coach willing to speak up.

Minnesota's Tim Brewster also voiced his support of expansion, reiterating Paterno's long-held stance on the competitive disadvantage that Big Ten football currently faces:

"We're kind of sitting at home watching while [the SEC, Big 12, and ACC] are out there doing some good things and getting a tremendous amount of exposure for their teams and their conference."

But here's the thing about adding just one school: creating a conference championship game would (only) net league members an extra $1 million or so -- chump change -- per institution.

And depending on which university joined, the annual TV revenue per member -- dictated by the Big Ten Network, which some say is the driving force behind the latest expansion -- may go down if that new member doesn't hail from a healthy market.

Expanding by three, however, would help to extend the Big Ten Network's already impressive coverage area, whether it be to the west, with the addition of one or more Big 12 North schools, or to the east, with the addition one or more Big East schools.

In 2009, Big Ten Conference members each received $22 million in shared revenue. Just imagine: a league that comprises three of the four largest TV markets in America. That's where the money is.

Today it appears that adding three (or even five) schools, as opposed to just one, is not only a more profitable venture, but it's also getting the most support from Big Ten talking heads.

Expanding to a 16-member league would have the greatest effect.

The Big Ten would quickly turn into the largest Division I athletic conference, the first true super-conference -- one that stretches across three regions of the map, spanning up to twelve states, dominant in both football and basketball.

And if Big Ten officials could somehow find five schools with membership in the prestigious Association of American Universities, it would be the cherry on top.

But considering the Big Ten's standards -- academically, athletically, geographically, and financially -- which institutions fit best?

The first name that comes to mind, naturally, is Notre Dame. It fits the mold in both the athletic and academic arenas. And love 'em or hate 'em, Irish football lore speaks for itself.

But the Big Ten has been down this road before:

• As early as 1926, Notre Dame AD Knute Rockne expressed interest in joining the Big Ten -- but conference members weren't interested.
• Flash forward six-plus decades, to 1993, and the Big Ten is approaching Notre Dame -- but the Irish aren't listening.
• So the Big Ten waited another six years: Both sides begin negotiating, the Notre Dame faculty senate gives a near-unanimous 'yes' vote -- but the ND Board of Trustees fears it will "cost us our distinctiveness."
• Then, in 2003, Notre Dame AD Kevin White tells Irish basketball coach Mike Brey to be prepared for a move to the Big Ten -- but Notre Dame changes its mind last-minute.

The point is this: Notre Dame and the Big Ten Conference haven't seen eye-to-eye for generations. What makes things any different today? Dollar signs?

Current Notre Dame athletic director, Jack Swarbrick, may have been hinting at that two weeks ago at the BCS meetings in Phoenix:

"There are things that are large enough to challenge our ability to remain independent and remain in the Big East."

Those things that would have to be large enough are (in my opinion) the scope of the expansion, and how much money would be on the table.

By joining the Big Ten, Notre Dame would at least double its annual TV revenue. By spurning the Big Ten, Notre Dame may pass up a golden opportunity.

But the next time the Big Ten comes knocking, it may be last call -- and Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany hasn't been shy about naming other universities the conference is courting.

Looking beyond South Bend, Delany is exploring the option of adding Missouri and/or Nebraska from the Big 12, in addition to a handful of Big East schools -- among them: Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse.

The repercussions of such a seismic shake-up would certainly affect the other eleven athletic conferences within the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Let's say the five schools mentioned above -- Mizzou, Nebraska, Pitt, Rutgers, and Syracuse -- all make the move: the Big 12 would suddenly (and literally) become the new Big Ten, while the Big East would find itself with only five football-sponsored universities.

It probably wouldn't be too difficult for the Big 12 to fill the void left by Missouri and Nebraska, as Mountain West and Conference USA members (or maybe even Boise State) would presumably covet such an opportunity.

As for the Big East: it may have to retire from the football business.

Even if it were able to re-coup the loss of three members, by adding three or more new schools from non-BCS conferences, the remaining core in football would consist of Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, South Florida, and West Virginia.

Combining those five football programs with the three best from non-BCS conferences may not be enough -- unless one of them is Notre Dame -- to retain the Big East's automatic BCS bowl bid.

And if Notre Dame does give up its football independence, I wouldn't bet on it joining a watered-down, eight-team football conference -- one that would force it to abandon (or at least halt) annual meetings with Southern Cal, Navy, and a host of Big Ten schools.

In past years, whether Big Ten officials were too selective, or too ambivalent, America's Oldest Conference didn't act soon enough, standing pat while the SEC, Big 12, and ACC expanded to twelve first.

This time around, with colossal cash on the line, I expect the Big Ten to be more assertive.

If you're wondering whether this expansion talk is legitimate, if the wealth of other nations will fall into the hands of the Big Ten, shaking up the landscape of college sports forever, I'd say its probably a matter of when -- not if.

But do I know what I'm talking about? Who knows.