Wednesday, November 26, 2008

My Report Card

Call it premature if you will, but I'd like to review my predraft quarterback rankings from 2008's NFL rookie class. It may not be fair to make a call on these guys just yet, but I'm very impatient and can't wait three or four years. The lists below display my top guys, the first few drafted at the position and their actual rank based on performance through the 2008 season.

Last year my man crush on Brian Brohm rivaled the one I had on Brady Quinn two years ago. As you'll see, or may remember, I was high on Brohm coming out of the U of L. Actually, I've been a big supporter since he left Trinity HS in Louisville. He was the best quarterback when he left there and I felt that nothing had changed when he was ready to go pro. Today Brohm is third string in Green Bay and starter Aaron Rodgers just received a long-term extension. Whoops.

My Rankings:
1. Brian Brohm, Green Bay (Louisville)
2. Chad Henne, Miami (Michigan)
3. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (Boston College)

Order Drafted:
1. Matt Ryan
2. Joe Flacco, Baltimore (Delaware)
3. Brian Brohm

Actual Rankings:
1. Matt Ryan
2. Joe Flacco
3. Chad Henne

The '08 draft wasn't very deep at the quarterback position. I'd actually call it top-heavy. Besides the four guys listed above, not many others are considered to have much pro potential and Ryan and Flacco are the only two that have played significant roles for their teams this season.

Matt Ryan, who played his high school ball in Philadelpiha area, has led the Atlanta Falcons this season opposed to just managing them. His 11:6 TD/INT ratio is outstanding for a rookie quaterback and his 88.3 QB rating ranks ahead of Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger. Not bad. I wasn't overly impressed by him at Boston College wen he was beating up on second-rate ACC competition and I definitely wasn't expecting him to be this good. His performance this season is just what the city of Atlanta needed following the Mike Vick scandal and I'm sure that Falcons fans are as pleasantly surprised as I am.
My prediction was... inaccurate

The Ravens traded up in the first round (although I felt it was unnecassary) to select another Philadelphia-area quarterback, Joe Flacco. He hasn't been as outstanding as Matt Ryan through his first year but he hasn't lost games either. He makes a big play here and there and for a rookie quarterback he's been good. Stepping into a starting role directly out of college isn't easy, especially if you are the signal-caller. I actually thought the guy would be a bust. I'm still not 100% sold on Flacco and if Troy Smith (you remember: Ohio State, Heisman Trophy) hadn't gotten sick and dropped 20 pounds in the preseason, Flacco wouldn't even be starting. Give it a little time before we crown him King of South Jersey. Let's see what happens next season if Flacco struggles down the stretch.
My prediction was... inaccurate (again)

When the Jets traded for Brett, Chad Pennington was immediately on the trading block. Since the Dolphins acquired him, the talk of Chad Henne getting any snaps has died down. He did get some reps earlier this season and was good in limited action. But overall, dude hasn't played much. I'm a Big Ten guy and Henne (a PA kid who we all thought would go to Penn State) started four years at Michigan, the winningest school in college football history. He had an up-and-down career in Ann Arbor because of injuries and a couple average seasons but was very good for the most part. Henne's size and arm are undeniablly the greatest of the '08 class and starting four years in a pro offense helps his cause. All he needs is the opportunity. And with the long list of injuries on Pennington's resume, that opportunity may come sooner than you think.
My prediction was... it's too early to tell

So far my forecast has been a bit off. Brohm and Henne haven't gotten much of a chance yet, so my bold rankings could look better someday. But for now Ryan and Flacco are the cream of the crop. My updated prediction? Ryan turns out to be the franchise quarterback that he appears to be and Flacco blows it at some point and losses a game he should have won, resulting in his benching. Then Chad Pennington has career-ending surgery of some type (not much to ask) and Henne takes over for good. And finally, Brohm gets a chance to show what he's got with Rodgers injured and some desparate team takes a chance on him Matt Schaub-stlye.

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